The new Supergirl movie releases in just one day on June 25th, marking the next major entry in the DC franchise. However, early tracking numbers are raising some alarm bells. Domestic opening weekend estimates for the U.S. are currently hovering in the upper $40s to $50 million range according to Deadline. To put that into perspective, it is less than half of what its predecessor, Superman, pulled in with its massive $125 million U.S. opening.
Compounding the worry are lackluster initial early review scores internationally. The only public review scores available right now come from South Korea’s CGV Golden EGG, where the film at the time of this article, is sitting at a 79% rating. Placing it on par with mixed-reception Marvel titles like Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania and Thor: Love and Thunder.
Ultimately, these soft box office projections are bound to impact the movie’s long-term merchandising footprint, with LEGO right at the center of the conversation.
The Worrying LEGO Trend in the DC Theme
This situation highlights a stark, ongoing trend regarding how major franchises are treated by LEGO. When comparing DC to giants like Star Wars and Marvel, a massive gap in confidence appears.
Star Wars remains an evergreen juggernaut where nearly every theatrical release or major streaming series receives dedicated LEGO waves because the products sell incredibly well. Even when a project’s actual box office performance isn’t breaking records, as was recently seen with The Mandalorian movie, the merchandise power remains unmatched. In fact, The Mandalorian broke records by driving the third-highest merchandise sales ever recorded at AMC Theatres.
Similarly, Marvel continues to see proactive, movie-tied releases. LEGO launched set 76316: Fantastic Four vs. Galactus Construction Figure ahead of the new Fantastic Four movie specifically to ride the pre-release hype wave because the market demand is historically there.
DC, on the other hand, has been entirely phased out of getting dedicated movie tie-in waves. While the Superman film did manage to secure a retail presence, it wasn’t a full wave of cinematic sets; it was a single, small entry-level build: 76302: Superman Mech vs. Lex Luthor.
Aside from that single mech, there has been a massive drought since a DC movie received a dedicated set wave. The last time LEGO showed full confidence in a theatrical DC project was Matt Reeves’ The Batman back in 2022, which received a staggering lineup of four distinct sets: 76179: Batman & Selina Kyle Motorcycle Pursuit, 76181: Batmobile: The Penguin Chase, 76183: Batcave: The Riddler Face-off, and the large-scale 42127: The Batman – Batmobile (Technic).
The only other time LEGO even attempted a cinematic DC tie-in since then was the cancelled 76221 (Batmobile: Flash Tracking). Due to studio delays and controversies, that project was ultimately stripped of its The Flash branding and reworked into 76224: Batmobile: Batman vs. The Joker Chase, pivoting the build into a standalone tribute to the classic 1989 film.
What this means for DC and Supergirl
If Supergirl underperforms at the box office as heavily as early tracking suggests, it is highly unlikely we will ever see a dedicated LEGO set released for the film down the road. For LEGO, avoiding a full wave for this film is looking like a calculated, smart business move. It further cements a harsh reality for the theme. Unless it has Batman on the box, LEGO is no longer willing to launch companion sets alongside the release of a new DC movie.
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