You might not have heard, but Moana just hit theaters, marking the third entry in what used to be a bulletproof franchise. Going into the weekend, early tracking by Variety, pegged it for a modest 60 to 65 million dollar domestic opening. While those projections were already a noticeable step down from the previous installment, the actual reality is much worse. The remake has completely collapsed, pacing for a disastrous 43 million dollar opening weekend haul. To put that into perspective, it is tracking slightly higher than Supergirl’s 37 million dollar opening, a movie already being labeled one of the year’s biggest box office disasters.
To understand how massive of a failure this is, you just have to look at the franchise’s history.
Back in 2016, the original animated Moana pulled in 56.6 million dollars over its first three days, and 82 million dollars over its five-day Thanksgiving launch. Adjusted for inflation, that translates to a massive 78.2 million dollar three-day and a 114.5 million dollar five-day opening today. Then came 2024’s Moana 2, which absolutely shattered records by bringing in an incredible 139.8 million dollars over three days and a staggering 225 million dollars over its five-day holiday window.
With a track record like that, Disney assumed they had another guaranteed mega-hit. But instead of making waves, this live-action remake has run completely aground.
But here is the most fascinating part about this box office bloodbath: the people who went to see it are loving it. In fact, its verified audience scores are pacing higher than the previous two entries at 90%, and it locked in a solid A-minus CinemaScore. While that sits just a hair below the original film’s straight A, it matches Moana 2 perfectly. The audience data proves audiences aren’t avoiding the movie because it is bad, they are avoiding it because they just don’t care.
And honestly, Disney should have seen this fatigue coming from a mile away. It took them eight long years to build up the anticipation for Moana 2. This remake is dropping just two years later. It doesn’t feel like a cinematic event; it feels like corporate churn.
A perfect example of this disconnect went viral on Twitter from Heavy Spoilers, who shared a story about a dad asking his young daughter, a massive fan who was literally playing with Moana dolls at the time, if she wanted to go see the new movie in theaters. Her response? She didn’t like the look of it.
When you can’t even get your hardcore, target-demographic kids to show up, you have a massive branding crisis. Whether it is the uninspiring look of the live-action aesthetic or the cringe-worthy, Rock-focused trailers, the public is sending a clear message. The magic of this franchise belongs in the medium of animation. By trying to force it into the real world, Disney stripped away what made it great, leaving audiences with a remake that feels completely pointless.